Predicting match probabilities
I'm considering the predicted probabilities based on ELO ratings and historical betting markets. I’d estimate Atleti's win probability as 45-50% away, 55-60% in neutral games, and 65-70% at home. Tactical reasons could include Atleti's transition play and Fulham's pressing style, plus the importance of set pieces. Key players for Atleti might be Griezmann and Morata, while Fulham has Palhinha and Pereira. I should clarify which season the user refers to while keeping my answer concise and reader-friendly.Estimating match probabilities
For a one-off match at Craven Cottage, I'd slightly favor Atleti. I might estimate Fulham's win probability around 38-42%, while Atleti’s chances could be about 40% for an away win, 30% for a draw, and 30% for a Fulham win. Given ELO ratings, if there’s a 150-point difference, the home advantage for Fulham could yield a marginal net difference in favor of Atleti. So, I’d suggest probabilities of 40-45% win for Atleti, 30% draw, and 25-30% loss, emphasizing tactical matchups as well.
短结论：能踢过，尤其中立场或主场；客场在克拉文农场也略占优，但不是碾压。
大致概率（给你个量化直觉）：
- 客场 vs 富勒姆：马竞胜 40–45%，平 28–30%，负 25–30%
- 中立场：马竞胜 55–58%，平 25–27%，负 17–20%
- 马竞主场：马竞胜 65–70%，平 20–22%，负 12–15%
为什么：
- 马竞优势：稳固中后场与反击效率、定位球威胁、比赛管理能力强；在中低位到中位逼抢之间切换成熟。
- 富勒姆优势：边路推进与传中、对二点球的冲击、高强度阶段性逼抢；若先进球，能把比赛拖入对抗和高空的节奏。
- 关键点：马竞若先得分或通过定位球破门，比赛会朝他们想要的方向走；富勒姆需要限制马竞的过渡期冲击和格列兹曼/二前锋的联动。
有具体赛地、预计首发或近期伤停，我可以把模型再细化一档、给到更贴近实战的对位判断。